There are some big questions being raised about the sustainability of the government’s effort to stimulate the economy. Research Economist James P. Gaines outlines a real estate Market Recap for the first half of the year.
As written by James P. Gaines:
The housing market seemed to show signs of improvement; however, during the second half of the year with no incentives it’s questionable as to whether the sudden growth will remain into 2011.
Existing single-family home sales for the first half of 2010 nationally were up 12.4 percent to just under 2.3 million units. The increased pace of sales lowered the months inventory from 8.9 to 8.6, still a relatively high level during the months of March, April and May. In June, sales fell a whopping 26.5 precent from July 2009, and the lower sales level caused the months inventory to soar to 11.9 months.
Like the U.S. housing market, Texas’ local housing markets felt the impact of the tax credit and aftermath of its withdrawal. On a total year-to-date basis for the first 6 months of 2010, Texas home sales totaled 109,581, a healthy increase of 11.1 percent over the first half of 2009.
It appears that Texas housing sales, like U.S. sales, peaked in May rather than the typical June or July cyclical high. Sustaining momentum from the first half of the year into the second half may be difficult.
One potential explanation for the unexpectedly high number of properties listed for sale may be a marked increase in the number of foreclosed and bank-owned properties as well as short sales. The continued softness in the overall economy and especially the job market continue to plague the housing sector.
Even with the significant sales decline in July, the July median price in Texas managed to increase 0.7 percent. If October and November home sales do not show a substantial decline from 2009, the market may be indicating a significant and real recovery!